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Canadian Federal Election 44 - Sep 2021

Altair

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How, exactly? I kept reading talking points about this but could never find out the "how" behind this claim?
The money the provinces get is dependent on the spots being rented is my understanding.

Excluding Quebec which already had its system up and running.

The spaces will balance themselves.
Unless you are fishing for this kind of informative answer.
 

ballz

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The money the provinces get is dependent on the spots being rented is my understanding.

So commercial real estate is at a premium in downtown Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and the provincial government now needs to either use thes scarce space available to build more spaces or rent all the space that exists?

This does not seem like a smart way to address supply issues. This seems to again throw more money at the problem and will increase the costs in the long-run... as government subsidies always do. Except now it's going to bleed into every single business as well, and seriously handicap start-ups.
 

Altair

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So commercial real estate is at a premium in downtown Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, and the provincial government now needs to either use thes scarce space available to build more spaces or rent all the space that exists?
Quebec has a system in place where they supply 76 percent of all daycare spots in the province, and the real estate market isn't significantly worse off than in Ontario or BC.
This does not seem like a smart way to address supply issues.
having parents pay 24k a year or forced to stay home seems like a dumber decision.
This seems to again throw more money at the problem and will increase the costs in the long-run...
Except costs are far lower in Quebec.
as government subsidies always do. Except now it's going to bleed into every single business as well, and seriously handicap start-ups.
I wish people didn't act like this system wasn't field tested in Canada for 25 years.
 

ballz

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Quebec has a system in place where they supply 76 percent of all daycare spots in the province, and the real estate market isn't significantly worse off than in Ontario or BC.

I'll go take a look, we don't hear about commercial real estate much I'm not sure what I could find. In saying that, there could literally be a 1000+ things that are affecting the market price of commercial real estate that help bring it down. The approach shouldn't be to do a single variable analysis to compare commercial real estate markets in different provinces. The question is, would commercial real estate be cheaper in Montreal if tomorrow, all those subsidized daycare spaces went away? I have no idea how much real estate it actually uses up, and it's impact on the local market, to equip a city like Montreal.... but it's certainly worth considering. Or not, since the cities can then just whine until everyone is in Canada gets forced by vote-chasing politicians to pay for that, too.

having parents pay 24k a year or forced to stay home seems like a dumber decision.

Living in a city where it costs that much for childcare seems like a dumber decision. I guess we'll add that to my list of things people in urban centers want feel entitled to without the necessary income.

Without going down this rabbit hole again, the more points you make the more convinced I am that these urban centers are heading down the same welfare trap as rural Newfoundland.... and now the province is on the brink of insolvency with seemingly no road to climb out since everyone feels entitled to government support for everything and is even having trouble borrowing now because it looks so bleak.

I wish people didn't act like this system wasn't field tested in Canada for 25 years.

Admittedly I've always found their system intriguing but never understood it enough. I've seen some interesting numbers but I'm skeptical... considering that until the Liberals blew up Ontario, Quebec had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio for a long long time. They do not exactly have a good track record on fiscal management, they were a train wreck despite a completely unfair equalization program that skews to their favour heavily.

While you may choose to ignore the sources of revenue that leads to Federal government equalization payments (which is a pretty foolish thing to do), when the overall debt load becomes too high and all of Canada has become entitled to our unsustainable entitlements and put us in a situation where even the Federal government can no longer provide support, do you think Canada is going to receive equalization money from other countries?

I guess global superpowers like China might be interested in helping us out.... with many, many strings attached.
 

Altair

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I'll go take a look, we don't hear about commercial real estate much I'm not sure what I could find. In saying that, there could literally be a 1000+ things that are affecting the market price of commercial real estate that help bring it down. The approach shouldn't be to do a single variable analysis to compare commercial real estate markets in different provinces. The question is, would commercial real estate be cheaper in Montreal if tomorrow, all those subsidized daycare spaces went away? I have no idea how much real estate it actually uses up, and it's impact on the local market, to equip a city like Montreal.... but it's certainly worth considering. Or not, since the cities can then just whine until everyone is in Canada gets forced by vote-chasing politicians to pay for that, too.
While there is going to be new spots created in the system, I suspect a lot of it is going to be existing spaces that are going for these absurd prices being rolled into the provincial system.

Depends on what the provinces have negotiated with the feds.
Living in a city where it costs that much for childcare seems like a dumber decision. I guess we'll add that to my list of things people in urban centers want feel entitled to without the necessary income.
Everyone move to Quebec!

People live in cities, surprise surprise. Canada gets more urban every year that goes by.
Without going down this rabbit hole again, the more points you make the more convinced I am that these urban centers are heading down the same welfare trap as rural Newfoundland.... and now the province is on the brink of insolvency with seemingly no road to climb out since everyone feels entitled to government support for everything and is even having trouble borrowing now because it looks so bleak.
Except for childcare increasing female workplace participation leading to an increase in female workplace participation which leads to increased economic activity, but we have have been down this conversation before.
Admittedly I've always found their system intriguing but never understood it enough. I've seen some interesting numbers but I'm skeptical... considering that until the Liberals blew up Ontario, Quebec had the highest debt-to-GDP ratio for a long long time. They do not exactly have a good track record on fiscal management, they were a train wreck despite a completely unfair equalization program that skews to their favour heavily.
Quebec was a fiscal basket case before putting in universal healthcare and they have been doing better in the decades since putting it in.

And since everyone here has been through the discussion of how equalization pays more per capita to the Atlantic provinces than it does to Quebec, going over that again would be beating a dead horse.
While you may choose to ignore the sources of revenue that leads to Federal government equalization payments (which is a pretty foolish thing to do), when the overall debt load becomes too high and all of Canada has become entitled to our unsustainable entitlements and put us in a situation where even the Federal government can no longer provide support, do you think Canada is going to receive equalization money from other countries?
I've said it before and I'll say it again,


Debt to GDP of the G7
Germany (85), USA (108), the UK (111.5),France (118), Italy (160), Japan, (260).

All these nations are among the top economies on the planet and they are all pilling on debt as well. Are you concerned about who is going to bail out Japan, or Italy? Or is Canada unique in its inability to service its debt? And is childcare, a program which can help give a boost to the economy, someone going to be the program that breaks the camels back?

It would be completely typical I guess, that Canada can spend hundreds of billions a year, and borrow tens of billions a year, but try to help working class Canadians to the tune of a 6 billion dollar annual childcare program and suddenly there is talk of being far too indebted. Well, make cuts to the 29 billion dollars that go to corporate subsidies annually and call it even, I really do not care.
I guess global superpowers like China might be interested in helping us out.... with many, many strings attached.
Or we can do what we have done in the past, without foreign intervention.
 

Brad Sallows

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Citing the most expensive data point didn't strengthen your point. The people already paying for high-end child care are unlikely to qualify for much in the way of subsidy. If they do, it's a piss-poor implementation on the politicians' part.
 

daftandbarmy

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Citing the most expensive data point didn't strengthen your point. The people already paying for high-end child care are unlikely to qualify for much in the way of subsidy. If they do, it's a piss-poor implementation on the politicians' part.

So being 'unfair', based on income, is one of the criteria?
 

Brad Sallows

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Usually the desire for social programs comes from progressives, and often progressives want some kind of means-testing in order to give more help to people who need help more. It'd save them a lot of future grief if they bake it in right now. If they prefer to be harassed by stories in the news of public dollars flowing to well-off earners, they can do it that way.
 

Kirkhill

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Quebec has a system in place where they supply 76 percent of all daycare spots in the province, and the real estate market isn't significantly worse off than in Ontario or BC.

having parents pay 24k a year or forced to stay home seems like a dumber decision.

Except costs are far lower in Quebec.

I wish people didn't act like this system wasn't field tested in Canada for 25 years.


Altair - I really don't want to pick a fight but somethings demand they be addressed.

I understand that you like the set of circumstances that provide for you in Quebec. But not all of us live in Quebec. Some of us find ourselves living in places like Alberta.

Alberta could, no doubt, have afforded to provide some of those services that you enjoy. But it was made harder by the net tendency of money to flow out of the province to the federal government and on to other provinces. There seemed to be a lot less of that money left here to be able to buy goods either publically or on the private market.

Things have gotten harder because of market conditions.

But they have not been improved by the policies of the federal government, and some of our sister provinces, making it harder for us to make money from foreigners. Money that could then be used by the federal government to make other provinces better provisioned.

Nor have they been improved by the fact that, despite money being harder to come by these days, the federal government still considers that we should continuing contributing to the federal coffers at the same rate as when we were making money so that they can continue to supply cash to other provinces.

It is true that the federal government is doing its bit to find other sources of revenue, such as printing money and borrowing money.

The has had the effect of increasing the price of our oil. Unfortunately the value of that oil, the number of lettuces it can buy and the number of roofs it can supply, are decreasing.

So, please, continue to enjoy your services.

Meanwhile, here in Alberta, we'll figure something out, eventually.

Slainte Mhor.
 

Altair

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Citing the most expensive data point didn't strengthen your point. The people already paying for high-end child care are unlikely to qualify for much in the way of subsidy. If they do, it's a piss-poor implementation on the politicians' part.
People paying for high end childcare who like what they are paying for will likely stay in the private system, assuming their daycare doesn't get rolled up in the public system.

People who are paying 15-20k who do not want to be paying 15-20k will naturally migrate to the public sector.

But here is the clincher. Its universal. So same way a billionaire can walk into a public hospital and get treated same as a janitor making 30k a year can walk into a public hospital and get treated, universal is universal.

Same way a billionaire can send their kid to public school same as any homecare worker can send their kid to public school.

Same way a billionaire can call the police service and have cops show up same as any nurse can call the police and have cops show up.

So universal is universal. Unless all public systems in Canada are suffering from piss poor implementation on the politicians part.
 

Fabius

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Why do people think that the cost of child care is absurd and unreasonable?

Don’t the female employees who generally provide the service deserve a proper wage?
 

ballz

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People live in cities, surprise surprise. Canada gets more urban every year that goes by.

Yes, why wouldn't they when they can get all the perks and not have to pay for them? We're creating a vicious cycle by then feeding that choice with more money. Exactly like rural Newfoundland where given they can have the benefits of small-town life and the amenities of urban life brought right to them, courtesy of taxpayers. Which over time has now led to a situation where they're spiraling out of control, having trouble lending any further, begging for federal help.... and of course, as they say, they don't want handouts, only what is "fair." Sound familiar?

Except for childcare increasing female workplace participation leading to an increase in female workplace participation which leads to increased economic activity, but we have have been down this conversation before.

Like I said, I'm interested in public support to childcare, but I'm skeptical.... universal healthcare is a great dea too, yet we have found the most unsustainable, worst way in the OECD to do it which is by using Federal spending powers... the same way we're about to go about implementing national childcare. And once a system implemented, like our healthcare system has proven, we're too stupid to analyze if it's working and change course as required. Perhaps Quebec's worked to net benefit because they did it fully in-house, provincially?

Debt to GDP of the G7
Germany (85), USA (108), the UK (111.5),France (118), Italy (160), Japan, (260).

All these nations are among the top economies on the planet and they are all pilling on debt as well. Are you concerned about who is going to bail out Japan, or Italy? Or is Canada unique in its inability to service its debt?

No, Canada is not unique, and yes I am concerned about the path western democracies are headed down. Yes, those countries and Canada are currently able to service their debt. But the situation doesn't seem to be getting better and yet we're piling on more public spending, in particular programs that are pretty much impossible to turn off. I'm thinking long-term here and you're thinking about your personal wants.

It would be completely typical I guess, that Canada can spend hundreds of billions a year, and borrow tens of billions a year, but try to help working class Canadians to the tune of a 6 billion dollar annual childcare program and suddenly there is talk of being far too indebted. Well, make cuts to the 29 billion dollars that go to corporate subsidies annually and call it even, I really do not care.

This paragraph is a bunch of bullshit and shows you aren't interested in actually discussing the topic, just your own selfish wants. Debt hasn't "suddenly" become a problem, many of us have been sounding off about it for years. I've been advocating to stop the corporate welfare for probably 10 years.

Stop making strawman's because you don't want to think of the long-term consequences that are inconvenient to your wants.

Or we can do what we have done in the past, without foreign intervention.

I guess you don't understand that debt accumulates over time. In no time in the past have we had so much debt, and in no time in the past have we had such high spending and such high deficits. These are apples and melons.

Fact of the matter is, Newfoundland is showing what happens to people who think these are all just numbers on papers. Except, as I said, when it's scaled up and it's Canada that's in the same boat, there won't be a higher level government to fall back on. We'll either have to pay the piper, or we'll be welcoming foreign actors to buy our sovereignty. And Canadians will be so personally weak and unable to take personal responsibility, they'll probably choose the latter.
 

Altair

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Altair - I really don't want to pick a fight but somethings demand they be addressed.
Okay, lets do it.
I understand that you like the set of circumstances that provide for you in Quebec. But not all of us live in Quebec. Some of us find ourselves living in places like Alberta.
I didn't have my child in Quebec. My spouse stayed at home to care for them. So....no.
Alberta could, no doubt, have afforded to provide some of those services that you enjoy. But it was made harder by the net tendency of money to flow out of the province to the federal government and on to other provinces. There seemed to be a lot less of that money left here to be able to buy goods either publically or on the private market.
Alberta also has a higher average income, collects more taxes per capita, has a younger population thus not needing to support as many elderly people, and has a lower overall tax burden. Alberta made the choice to not have a sales tax of which proceeds could go towards things like child care. Alberta crying poor is really rich. Even with the oil crash and job losses it still has among the highest average incomes in the nation.
But they have not been improved by the policies of the federal government, and some of our sister provinces, making it harder for us to make money from foreigners. Money that could then be used by the federal government to make other provinces better provisioned.
Trans mountain will be done in a year I think? 2? KeystoneXL was done in by president of the USA? What do you want?
Nor have they been improved by the fact that, despite money being harder to come by these days, the federal government still considers that we should continuing contributing to the federal coffers at the same rate as when we were making money so that they can continue to supply cash to other provinces.
Again, despite everything, Alberta is still one of the most wealthy jurisdictions in Canada. Average salary 77k a year compared to the Canadian average of 58k.
It is true that the federal government is doing its bit to find other sources of revenue, such as printing money and borrowing money.
This is getting further and further away from childcare I notice.
The has had the effect of increasing the price of our oil. Unfortunately the value of that oil, the number of lettuces it can buy and the number of roofs it can supply, are decreasing.
Further and further away.
So, please, continue to enjoy your services.
I never got it and my kid is in school now so I never will.
Meanwhile, here in Alberta, we'll figure something out, eventually.

Slainte Mhor.
Put in a sales tax and stop complaining.
 

Altair

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Why do people think that the cost of child care is absurd and unreasonable?

Don’t the female employees who generally provide the service deserve a proper wage?
They do. Same a nurses and doctors deserve a proper wage.

But same way we do not pay for healthcare directly to cover those wages people wont be paying the female employees of the childcare system directly.
 

ballz

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Why do people think that the cost of child care is absurd and unreasonable?

Don’t the female employees who generally provide the service deserve a proper wage?

If you're from an urban centre, apparently the answer is "only if other people have to pay for it."

I'm actually surprised to see those numbers for infants... I'm not saying there's not circumstances people are in, largely by choice, where you need to put your infant in full-day care, but it's kinda screwing my mind up. We have 2 year parental leave already. I'm not sure why someone would have a child and want to put them in full-time care two weeks later, to go back to work for $50-60k, when they can collect parental income to stay at home for the first year. I also can't see how that's a good way to raise a generation. But admittedly I don't have kids and being in the military has insulated me from what leads to these kind of decisions, but it's definitely raised my eyebrows.
 

Altair

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Yes, why wouldn't they when they can get all the perks and not have to pay for them? We're creating a vicious cycle by then feeding that choice with more money. Exactly like rural Newfoundland where given they can have the benefits of small-town life and the amenities of urban life brought right to them, courtesy of taxpayers. Which over time has now led to a situation where they're spiraling out of control, having trouble lending any further, begging for federal help.... and of course, as they say, they don't want handouts, only what is "fair." Sound familiar?
Except cities have, as I have shown, contributed greatly to the economic success of the provinces they are in.

Montreal providing 55 percent of Quebecs GDP. Toronto providing 54 percent. You want to get people in the cities to...not live in cities? Are small towns in the country ready for the influx of city dwellers descending on their communities? Is the infrastructure there? The housing, the jobs, the hospitals?

I doubt that very much. But it would be a great experiment to take 10 percent of Torontos populations and dump in in Wawa ontario.
Like I said, I'm interested in public support to childcare, but I'm skeptical.... universal healthcare is a great dea too, yet we have found the most unsustainable, worst way in the OECD to do it which is by using Federal spending powers... the same way we're about to go about implementing national childcare. And once a system implemented, like our healthcare system has proven, we're too stupid to analyze if it's working and change course as required. Perhaps Quebec's worked to net benefit because they did it fully in-house, provincially?
The reason that Canadian healthcare sucks so bad is because we are have locked the private sector out of the equation. Europe achieves amazing results blending private and public healthcare. Americans receives mediocre healthcare results by not providing a effective public option and Canada achieves mediocre results by not allowing for much of a private option.

Why do I bring this up? Because this universal healthcare system is based on Quebec. Why does that matter? Because Quebec only provides 76 percent of all childcare spots in the province. This is a good blend of private and public. A good omen.
No, Canada is not unique, and yes I am concerned about the path western democracies are headed down. Yes, those countries and Canada are currently able to service their debt. But the situation doesn't seem to be getting better and yet we're piling on more public spending, in particular programs that are pretty much impossible to turn off. I'm thinking long-term here and you're thinking about your personal wants.
I get nothing out of this childcare deal.
This paragraph is a bunch of bullshit and shows you aren't interested in actually discussing the topic, just your own selfish wants. Debt hasn't "suddenly" become a problem, many of us have been sounding off about it for years. I've been advocating to stop the corporate welfare for probably 10 years.
When the top credit rating agencies stop considering Canadians debt amongst the top tier I will start to care.
Stop making strawman's because you don't want to think of the long-term consequences that are inconvenient to your wants.
I get 0 out of this childcare deal.
I guess you don't understand that debt accumulates over time. In no time in the past have we had so much debt, and in no time in the past have we had such high spending and such high deficits. These are apples and melons.
I guess you do not understand that if the economy grows faster than the debt accumulates it gets easier to service that debt.
Fact of the matter is, Newfoundland is showing what happens to people who think these are all just numbers on papers. Except, as I said, when it's scaled up and it's Canada that's in the same boat, there won't be a higher level government to fall back on. We'll either have to pay the piper, or we'll be welcoming foreign actors to buy our sovereignty. And Canadians will be so personally weak and unable to take personal responsibility, they'll probably choose the latter.
Newfoundland is a poor example. Its doesn't have a very industrialized economy. It doesn't have massive resource exports. It doesn't have a massive financial sector. But sure, why not take Newfoundland and apply it writ large across the nation? Why not use PEI next? Or Yukon...
 
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