Ukraine - Superthread

[Kirkhill]

Interesting video of a recent strike on the Antonovskiy Bridge at Kherson.

Unfortunately it was via the Express so the feed is mucked up with ads.
Edit: found a better video.

But.

The interesting bit is the SAM response to the attack. They seem to be having some success against the incoming rounds. But the incoming side seems to prevail.

[

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo1bz5

 

[Kirkhill]

There seems to have been one effect

Following Ukrainian strikes hitting Kherson bridges, invaders fleeing to Melitopol

After the successful strikes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the bridges over the Dnipro River in Kherson region, the "leadership" of the occupation forces are withdrawing from the area to another occupied town of Melitopol. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

This would seem to confirm this report - the superlatives might be premature.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wns1pg

Edit - additional reports

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo6qfb

 

[CBH99]

Hmmm. I wonder what would happen if Wagner (and its backers) decided it was done with dying for Putin and not getting paid until the contract was filled and decided to correct that situation ..

Shrouded in secrecy for years, Russia’s Wagner Group opens up

The mysterious network of mercenaries is embracing an ever-public image as the war on Ukraine drags on.

www.aljazeera.com

I’m just blown away they made such a solid comeback after the USMC decided to simplify the situation in theatre a few years back.


…I should reword that…


I’m surprised Wagner has made a notable comeback after the USMC blew them away a few years back

 

[Kirkhill]

The strikes in Crimea and Kherson certainly seem to be having an effect on Kerch.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo98xx

If true - the strike on the airfield was on Tuesday. That tailback is 5 days old. I wonder how they are doing for fuel.

 

[MilEME09]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558897986331152386

 

[Kirkhill]

Some activity from the Joint Expeditionary Force community

Making waves distinct from those of NATO and the EU

Poland joining JEF countries Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Denmark in trying to get the EU to stop issuing tourist visas to Russians.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo4wn7

And Estonia (Tallinn) and Finland (Helsinki) have taken up their historic roles as fortresses controlling the passage from the Baltic to St Petersburg and Novgorod. Together with Denmark (Elsinore) they bottle up the Baltic and deny Russia access to the North Atlantic by that route.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/wo2h26

More on the situation

Blue Spear 5G SSM land-to-sea missile systems from Israel. With a maximum range of 290 kilometers (approximately 180.2 miles), the Blue Spear missile system can reach targets across both the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea, and can also be used to strike both moving and stationary targets at sea in all weather conditions, day or night. Likewise, it can autonomously navigate to its target zone, and zero in on targets on its own once it gets in range to do so.

Estonia’s New Anti-Ship Missiles: Crucial Naval Capability and Overdue Strategic Shift to Sea

Earlier this month, the Estonian Center for Defense Investment (ECDI) announced the purchase of Blue Spear 5G SSM land-to-sea missile systems from Israel.

balticsecurity.eu

New anti-ship missile deal will bolster Finland and Estonia’s coastal defences against Russian warships

The two countries will sign a deal that would potentially sever Moscow’s link with its fleet in the Baltic Sea in case of conflict

www.telegraph.co.uk

Helsinki and Tallinn block St Petersburg. Stockholm plays backstop. Copenhagen is safety.

 

[Colin Parkinson]

I’m just blown away they made such a solid comeback after the USMC decided to simplify the situation in theatre a few years back.


…I should reword that…


I’m surprised Wagner has made a notable comeback after the USMC blew them away a few years back

They just recruit more people from a broken economy, keeping the economy in some areas down makes for good recruiting. I suspect that Moscow is even less caring of some regions, than Ottawa was of the west in the 1980-90's

 

[Colin Parkinson]

Don't reverse into buildings as they may have basements

Военный Осведомитель

t.me

 

[CBH99]

They just recruit more people from a broken economy, keeping the economy in some areas down makes for good recruiting. I suspect that Moscow is even less caring of some regions, than Ottawa was of the west in the 1980-90's

But that’s just it…

Supposedly Wagner was providing the Kremlin with elite, ex-SF guys who didn’t give a remote f**k about morals, to go do what would take the conventional army a lot more bodies & effort to do.

Or go places the Russian army couldn’t be deployed to, due to optics, legality, etc.


Like Blackwater in the sense of it being a PMC, but without the hassle of politics getting in the way…

But now? Those guys are dead, ironically enough the few survivors taken out by ‘upper management.’

The recruiting pool of current ex-SF guys will be fairly small with most of them saying “hell no…” or also being dead.



So Wagner may recruit from the poor areas & offer a better deal than the Russian army. But are they going to be as capable as Wagner was once suspected of being? I’m thinking not…

Which is great news for everybody, tbh.

 

[MilEME09]

I think we got called out....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558977526403420160

 

[rmc_wannabe]

I think we got called out....

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1558977526403420160

 

[NavyShooter]

Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.

Interesting if true....

More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?

Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?

Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack. Maybe that was never the plan at all? The plan that seems to be working right now is:
1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
5. RUS continues to push troops forward
6. Cut bridges behind troops
7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)

Thoughts?

Then UKR gets to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?

 

[rmc_wannabe]

Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.

Interesting if true....

More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?

Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?

Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack. Maybe that was never the plan at all? The plan that seems to be working right now is:
1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
5. RUS continues to push troops forward
6. Cut bridges behind troops
7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)

Thoughts?

Then UKR gets to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?

If this is the plan: encirclement using geography, IO, and long range munitions; then I think the Ukrainians will have one of the most tactically savvy feints in history under their belts.

 

[Good2Golf]

Hearing rumbles of leadership pulling themselves back across certain broken bridges...leaving troops behind.

Interesting if true....

More interesting would be if the UKR forces are able to move forward and collect those left behind with minimal cost...and collect their kit and equipment?

Maybe that was their plan for the 'southern offensive' all along?

Everyone was expecting tanks/APC's to roll forward and attack. Maybe that was never the plan at all? The plan that seems to be working right now is:
1. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
2. RUS responds by prepping that front with new troops and surges BTGs into the area
3. HIMARS arrives - destroys ammo dumps in depth
4. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south
5. RUS continues to push troops forward
6. Cut bridges behind troops
7. Wait a bit until RUS troops start running out of food/ammo
8. Say there's going to be an offensive in the south.
9. RUS leadership 'tactically repositions' across what's left of the bridges
10. Not enough functional bridges, barges or pontoons to extract the troops and their gear
11. HIMARS on leadership who left the troops behind (yet to come?)
12. Roll forward and accept surrender of starving/no gas/no bullets RUS troops that were left behind by their leadership (yet to come?)

Thoughts?

Then UKR gets to consolidate behind the river - absorb and repair the captured equipment, continue to HIMARS, and dig in for the fall, prep for either a frozen/winter offensive, or a post-spring-mud offensive?

Not unreasonable to think of such a plan. How many RUAF troops are estimated to be in the sliver of Kherson-eastwards and North of the Dnipro River?

 

[MilEME09]

Not unreasonable to think of such a plan. How many RUAF troops are estimated to be in the sliver of Kherson-eastwards and North of the Dnipro River?

Estimated 25k Russian troops on the west bank

 

[YZT580]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1557435923649990657

Estimated 25k Russian troops on the west bank

stating the obvious but that is one hell of a lot of people to keep supplied using rubber boats and bailey bridges

 

[MilEME09]

stating the obvious but that is one hell of a lot of people to keep supplied using rubber boats and bailey bridges

It's estimated with the bridges lost the Russians would need 26 hours in a day to keep all formations supplied fully. Since a day is only 24 hours, they are already hurting

 

[Kirkhill]

Some interesting commentary via Trent Telenko

1. The effect of a well placed charge

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559190073517670400

2. The value of obfuscation

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559191383696605184

3. Some thoughts on the state of play with respect to Russian artillery logistics - barrels and bullets (long thread)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559013688958455813

 

[brihard]

Some interesting commentary via Trent Telenko

1. The effect of a well placed charge

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559190073517670400

2. The value of obfuscation

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559191383696605184

3. Some thoughts on the state of play with respect to Russian artillery logistics - barrels and bullets (long thread)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559013688958455813

I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.

 

[MilEME09]

I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.

He makes a lot of guesstimates without much data, more so from inferences. Such as RU arty at its peak firing an estimated 60k rounds in a week