I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.
He makes a lot of guesstimates without much data, more so from inferences. Such as RU arty at its peak firing an estimated 60k rounds in a week
I responded to his Twitter thread - as someone was asking for a better guess.
There hasn't been any really good data on RU Arty production for quite some time, OS or Classified.
Storage capacity is known - but that is about it.
Part of the issue is the Russian system under Putin is hard to audit.
Let's say Plant A claims it makes 2Mt of shells a year.
They get paid for 2Mt shells, but only makes 1.5Mt
The RU Army logs 2Mt
Of the 1.5Mt, they also siphon off 33% or .5Mt to sell to other countries etc.
So now the RU Army has logged 2Mt, but only has 1Mt (and someone has a new villa or yacht)
Of the actual 1Mt that the RU Army does have, what is the QA/QC and how many effective functioning rounds do they have?
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What is known is that with the firing rate and the capabilities to replace barrels etc - that they are running through somewhere between 22 and 45 new barrel a day equivalent.
They don't have the capability to make that many barrels a day anyone, nor the capacity to replace that many barrels a day anymore.
Eventually the RU Arty is going to run out of functional guns -- most likely before they run out of munitions...
