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Ukraine - Superthread

rmc_wannabe

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This war has been a poker match with everyone else guessing what the other person has in their hand before its played.

It's folly to go off previous plays and how many chips they have in the stack.

Guesstimation is poor strategy
 

KevinB

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I read his ‘most important logistical thread’. It was a modestly interesting guesstimate about Russian artillery barrels getting shot out through use and had little real source data on firing volumes to calculate off of. Trent makes some quite interesting threads sometimes, but he can go a bit overboard on talking up the significance of some things too.
He makes a lot of guesstimates without much data, more so from inferences. Such as RU arty at its peak firing an estimated 60k rounds in a week
I responded to his Twitter thread - as someone was asking for a better guess.

There hasn't been any really good data on RU Arty production for quite some time, OS or Classified.
Storage capacity is known - but that is about it.
Part of the issue is the Russian system under Putin is hard to audit.

Let's say Plant A claims it makes 2Mt of shells a year.
They get paid for 2Mt shells, but only makes 1.5Mt
The RU Army logs 2Mt

Of the 1.5Mt, they also siphon off 33% or .5Mt to sell to other countries etc.
So now the RU Army has logged 2Mt, but only has 1Mt (and someone has a new villa or yacht)

Of the actual 1Mt that the RU Army does have, what is the QA/QC and how many effective functioning rounds do they have?


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What is known is that with the firing rate and the capabilities to replace barrels etc - that they are running through somewhere between 22 and 45 new barrel a day equivalent.
They don't have the capability to make that many barrels a day anyone, nor the capacity to replace that many barrels a day anymore.

Eventually the RU Arty is going to run out of functional guns -- most likely before they run out of munitions...
 

brihard

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Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?
 

Colin Parkinson

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Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?
Both it seems. Plus other parts break, carriages, recoil systems, even if the don't crack (C3 enters Chat) parts wear out and likley there are not enough gun plumbers or parts to keep up with the maintenance.
 

brihard

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Both it seems. Plus other parts break, carriages, recoil systems, even if the don't crack (C3 enters Chat) parts wear out and likley there are not enough gun plumbers or parts to keep up with the maintenance.
Right. Yeah, I guess there are a lot of other moving parts too- barrel wear is sort of a proxy for wear and tear generally. You blow something up a thousand times, things will break…
 

McG

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Barrel wear- is it mostly just an accuracy thing? If they’re still mass-shelling grid squares, does it actually matter a great deal? Or are we talking about barrels exploding?
Barrel wear initially leads to reduced accuracy, which means you have to fire more rounds to hit your target. Ineffectually hammering a grid square is more wasted effort than value. Eventually, barrel wear can see catastrophic barrel failure in which the gun will be lost and the crew will probably take casualties.
 

Good2Golf

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If I was Ukraine, I wouldn't plan on taking them all prisoner.

Zero prisoners is a good number IMHO ;)
You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?

There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.
 

daftandbarmy

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You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?

There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.

Dude, you don't 'get' Paratroopers, do you ;)

Angry Black Friday GIF by Buyout Footage
 

Kilted

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You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?

There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.
What if they all surrendered for "tactical reasons?"
 

brihard

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You mean like if they’re still fighting, they’re still combatants, right?

There should be some ‘what if’ planning for some large scale PW handling, for certain.
Yup. Get them back somewhere safe, treat them humanely, keep them under relatively decent conditions, and make sure they get a steady flow of info about just how shitty things are on the front lines. Make sure they know that, as PWs, they go home when it’s over. Some will still cause some grief but most will be content to wait it out.
 

Good2Golf

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Dude, you don't 'get' Paratroopers, do you ;)

Angry Black Friday GIF by Buyout Footage
I wasn’t quite sure where you were heading…you jumpers are a funny lot. I was just mindful that UKR must remain LOAC-compliant at all times.
 

MilEME09

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Yup. Get them back somewhere safe, treat them humanely, keep them under relatively decent conditions, and make sure they get a steady flow of info about just how shitty things are on the front lines. Make sure they know that, as PWs, they go home when it’s over. Some will still cause some grief but most will be content to wait it out.
Maybe thats a factor into the delayed offensive? If even a third are captured, that's thousands of PoWs.
 

Kat Stevens

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Barrel wear initially leads to reduced accuracy, which means you have to fire more rounds to hit your target. Ineffectually hammering a grid square is more wasted effort than value. Eventually, barrel wear can see catastrophic barrel failure in which the gun will be lost and the crew will probably take casualties.
I'd be tempted, were I Ivan, to pack those shot out barrels full of HE, weld or plug the breach shut, screw on a PD fuze and start chucking em out of airplanes. high velocity pipe bomb from hell.
 

rmc_wannabe

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Re the TV Tower - as the man sez. A different opinion.

This is a Russian demolition.

Anyone involved in EW targeting would know transmitter towers are a dime a dozen comparatively. Some ass pain is putting it back up, but that isn't disabling the installation.

The sweet spot is is the building /truck/compound beside it. That's where the Tx/Rx stuff is. Or the people operating it. Or the Command Staff supporting it.

Russians are not even deepfaking properly now...

Frustrated Will Ferrell GIF
 
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