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Ukraine - Superthread

brihard

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Looks like an explodey night in the AOR according to the OSINT aggregators.

Something was shot at and potentially shot down reportedly near the Kerch Strait (literally just sending a dumb drone to get visibly shot down near there will have a major psychological effect).


Stuff blew up at Belbek airbase near Sevastopol, Crimea. Recent photos have shown tactical jets on the ground there.


Something burning big and bright, reportedly at Stary Oskol airbase in Belgorod oblast- this is a weird one, it’s something like 150km from the lines and a helicopter base.


None of these are verified, all are coming from ‘citizen footage’ of stuff brewing up at night. Any or all could be inaccurate. Or the Ukrainians could be very busy proving deep strike capabilities tonight, and being seen to probe the Kerch bridge to get in Russia’s head.

It’s not even midnight yet in Ukraine (all one time zone). The night is young.
 

rmc_wannabe

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This is just the appetizer I imagine. The Ukrainians have the means to hammer that bridge, that was not the main effort
 

brihard

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Looks like an explodey night in the AOR according to the OSINT aggregators.

Something was shot at and potentially shot down reportedly near the Kerch Strait (literally just sending a dumb drone to get visibly shot down near there will have a major psychological effect).


Stuff blew up at Belbek airbase near Sevastopol, Crimea. Recent photos have shown tactical jets on the ground there.


Something burning big and bright, reportedly at Stary Oskol airbase in Belgorod oblast- this is a weird one, it’s something like 150km from the lines and a helicopter base.


None of these are verified, all are coming from ‘citizen footage’ of stuff brewing up at night. Any or all could be inaccurate. Or the Ukrainians could be very busy proving deep strike capabilities tonight, and being seen to probe the Kerch bridge to get in Russia’s head.

It’s not even midnight yet in Ukraine (all one time zone). The night is young.

The reports of a hit at Belbek airbase seem to be inaccurate. Sorry, seems to be a lot going on tonight.
 

MilEME09

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The reports of a hit at Belbek airbase seem to be inaccurate. Sorry, seems to be a lot going on tonight.
Reports are still conflicting, some pro tmrussian telegram channels that originally reported it are changing their story. We will need ti wait for satellite imagery to see who is telling the truth
 

Maxman1

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Hmmmm, I still think it’s failure to obey no smoking policy at the bases/dumps.

View attachment 72592
And if that doesn't work, unleash Forrest Byrnes.
zaklnhbctu561.jpg
 

daftandbarmy

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Still waiting....

Ukraine appears to prepare counteroffensive against Russia​

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has teased a counteroffensive in Ukraine. So are recent attacks on railroad logistics, command and communication facilities in territories occupied by Russia's army preparations for that?

Ben Hodges, a former general in the US army and commander-in-chief of US forces in Europe, told DW that there are signs that Russia's army is weakening following explosions at Russia's airfield on the Crimean Peninsula and Ukrainian artillery hits on dozens of ammunition depots and commando units in Russian-occupied areas.

"This shows that they are vulnerable," Hodges said. "It also shows that their logistical system is depleted. The Russians don't even have enough people or capability to protect their operational logistics."

 

suffolkowner

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An analysis of Russian Artillery...shared from Tom Cooper on F-Book, who appears to have gotten it here:


View attachment 72600
Is there numbers on comparable Western production capability or supplies?


Based on his figures, monthly missile production rates are as follows:

– Novator plant: 8-10 Kalibr naval cruise missiles* per month

– Novator plant: 3-6 Iskander-K cruise missiles per month (“several dozen [annually]”) per month

– Votkinsk plant: 5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles per month (increased from 4)

[from other sources] 2-4 Oniks anti-ship missiles per month (“several dozen annually”) or 4.5 per month (55 annually) used in Bastion coastal defense system and Russian ships
 
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